When Large Businesses Game the System

There has been a fair amount of news recently about AOL's goal to re-brand its image from one that speaks to poor user experience, mediocre content, and a mailbox full of SPAM to... well I'm not exactly sure what they're transitioning to at the moment. If one were to listen to what current AOL CEO and former Associated Content co-founder Tim Armstrong has to say on the subject, it doesn't sound as if much has changed.

Over the past two weeks, details about AOL's new business model have been slowly revealed to the tech press and it looks as if Armstrong is hedging his bets on rebuilding AOL as a closed provider of in-network link SPAM and junk content.

It's not the freshest or most interesting idea, but it's simple enough to understand; use basic algorithms and automated systems to track the highest queried terms and then assign these terms to contract writers to produce topical content to drive traffic. The theory goes that if you can produce content that covers hot topics and then artificially increase article relevancy and visibility by utilizing inbound links from your own micro-sites, then your new content will be propelled to the top of search engine rankings and your traffic will increase with it. It's a content strategy that's three shades off from being completely honest, and it's one that spammers and malicious sites have been using for years in order to increase visits. It's also the exact model used by in-demand media companies like the aforementioned Associated Content to saturate the web with some of the dullest and most bounce-worthy information imaginable.

Some have already deemed AOL's new strategy as a long-term failure by simply assuming that the search engines will eventually massage out the inherent inadequacies that allow this sort of content to win out in the first place. But the truth of the matter is that junk content is still content, and so as long as the content on a page is coherent and readable, it still has a chance of winning out over far more interesting entries. Answers.com, eHow, and About.com are just three examples of sites that employ similar strategies to the one that AOL is attempting (albeit in a slightly better fashion), and they have yet to be penalized by search engines in any significant way.

This is actually going to be interesting from a search engine marketing standpoint; not only because it allows us to go back over and evaluate our own methodology, but also because AOL's high-profile approach to content creation will give us a window into what the search engines will or won't tolerate over the course of time. There's no doubt that AOL's venture into this area is due to a lack of policing by the search engines. In fact, the entire business model is reliant on the fact that search engines won't make any sweeping or sudden changes to their algorithms. The question now, though, is whether or not this marketing strategy is capable of long-term sustainability.

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What is the future of search?

What is the future of search?

Search appears to be progressing into a split personality, depending on the type of data search being performed. At the moment we are using one tool (of visitor’s choice) to perform all search for data. That will continue to become more cumbersome as the data set available on the Internet grows.

1. Educational data – A significant amount of search is done in “stream of thought” for educational purpose. I apply education very broadly here as it could be a student researching Taiwan or a consumer completing research for a future purchase. Either way, this is neither life nor death, or is there an imminent purchase/decision to be made. The visitor is learning for future reference.

In this case the volume of data available on the Internet is an overwhelming burden. The searcher becomes bogged down in similarly-presented data with no guidance towards authority. The searcher is literally charged with finding data as well as discerning truth/authority.

I believe enhanced (matrix) search tools will begin to help this searcher find their way. Search tools will evolve additional relevancy based upon not only standards-driven user input but also statistical analysis of more finite pieces of data. We will see search results to data subsets versus the whole. No longer will the search be based upon an entire work so much as a piece of that work validated by user input with further statistical analysis of the search tool itself.

2. Consumable data – In this case I’m speaking of a visitor searching for data that will help them complete a timely (imminent) task such as location of a person, place, or thing. My expectation is that we will see a focus into highly-localized search (based upon known location) combined with some level of augmented reality tools.

The technology to ascertain the visitor’s location is already a simple matter. Resolving that to the data pertinent to that known location is only a matter of time. At the moment this data/location relationship is reliant on business and user data to be manually input and verified. It is only a matter of time before the processing and storage resources are applied to an intensive attack on this problem.

Once data is solidly tied to location, then some use of augmented reality will begin to pay off. A visitor will continue to search for a “keyword/thing” in a location and find a point of purchase for that item in a nearby store but computers will take it one step further.

I see visitors pointing their phone’s camera lens at an item and clicking a button. The image will be captured, combined with geolocation and proximity to data. Then the search engine will reply to the visitor with the question for refinement - “Do you want to know about that thing? Do you wish to purchase?”

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Does domain age matter?

Within the last year Google has finally gone on record to comment on the significance of a domain name's age and how it affects rankings in search engines.

The most recent instance occurred when Matt Cutts addressed this in the GoogleWebmasterHelp YouTube channel back in May:



Cutts also provided a similar glimmer of insight earlier in the year when he said:

To the best of my knowledge, no search engine has ever confirmed that they use length-of-registration as a factor in scoring. If a company is asserting that as a fact, that would be troubling.

So, yes, we do have two recent statements wherein Google specifically touches on the issue of domain registration length and its effect on search engine rankings, but (un)surprisingly both of these responses are fairly ambiguous. He isn't specifically saying that a domain's age doesn't have an effect on search engine rankings, just that it doesn't matter all that much when you look at the big picture.

If we were to take Cutts' statements for what they are, then we can infer that a three month old domain won't have any significant or noticeable competitive handicap when compared to a one or even two-year-old domain. A number of people have come out of the woodwork to argue against this point, and we've even begun to see a number of registration companies and domain squatters who are more than happy to use a domain name's age as a selling point.

But for many of the people who have shown good returns on established domains, their sites are often tied to high-quality, well-written content, as well as established and strong in-bound links. Regardless of whether or not age plays a large role in Google's algorithm, it's very rare for a brand new domain to have all of these things associated with it at launch. It takes planning, follow-thru, and more importantly time, to pull all of these things together. So it should come as no surprise that a site that has been actively updated and maintained for a year or two would hold an advantage over a newly christened site; there just wasn't as much time or effort put into the new site.

None of the factors that go into SEO exist in a vacuum, and a good portion of optimizing a site well often involves seeing the forest for the trees. While many people within the industry can argue the merits of holding on to established domains, the focus should never be specifically centered on one aspect. Now that we have an official word on this matter, one would hope that the subject could be dropped in favor of techniques that speak more to the substantive long-term and short-term needs of a site.

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SEO and Social Media Don't Mix

Given the immense growth of social media sites over the past six years and the importance of link building in search engine marketing, it's not surprising that one common and flawed question continues to come up every few months: "How much of an effect do social media sites have in determining our website's visibility and PageRank?"

The simplest answer is: little to none. Generally speaking the largest social networking and social bookmarking sites provide very little utility when it comes to link building. While many sites such as MySpace, Facebook, Del.icio.us, YouTube and even Flickr once allowed unfettered direct linking, nowadays many social media sites have been obfuscating off-site links with page forwards, frames, and the more common "nofollow" anchor tag restriction. These small changes have essentially nullified any previous and current efforts to improve a site's Google PageRank via social networks.

Naturally, from an SEO perspective, this brings us back to square one. If it isn't possible to effectively utilize social media to increase your website's visibility, then what inherent value does it even have?

One of the best approaches is to think of your social media pages as being micro-sites for your preexisting base of customers; they can serve as convenient locations where you can provide former and current customers with content that's fresh, interesting, and immediate. Whereas you would normally apply a long-term strategy of attracting new customers to your company's website in the form of competitive SEO, a Facebook page is the perfect place to connect with current customers in order to create short-term conversion opportunities in the form of product announcements, discounts, and important company news.

That's just one example, of course. But it is one of the many opportunities that social media can provide your company if you approach it as a unique, social tool and not simply as a means for improving your PageRank.

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Yahoo and Microsoft Back To The Table?

It appears that Yahoo and Microsoft are back to the table talking about a search partnership. The talks appear bereft of discussion for a takeover and the general news surrounding both companies appear to support the death of any takeover bid.

Yahoo's new CEO, Carol Bartz, has joined ranks after the multiple takeover bids and doesn't appear to display any of the baggage from the multiple battles between the two companies in 2008. Microsoft appears to be moving on with their new search engine development (internal name Kumo).

What does it mean for the search world?

From our Search Engine Marketing perspective, we are happy to see Microsoft and Yahoo speaking in terms of combating Google's huge market share (multiple sources put them around 63%). Whether or not they can actually perform in this arena is questionable but we prefer they state that they will attempt to do so...

Until then, track your PPC numbers closely and diversify where you are able.

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Craig Davis is a Google Adwords Qualified Individual

Craig Davis of First Scribe Inc. has been using Google's Pay Per Click advertising service, Google Adwords, to varying degrees for roughly 4 years. In order to further his knowledge of the Adwords system, he recently studied for, and handily succeeded in passing, the Google Advertising Professional Exam to become a Google Adwords Qualified Individual.

The Google Adwords certification exam is an exhaustive test covering all aspects of the Adwords system. Topics include account creation, billing, administration and optimization. The intent is to ensure marketing professionals have a complete understanding of the Google Adwords platform. With this knowledge a Google Advertising Pro can create and administer high-performance Adwords campaigns.

Craig is a valuable member of the First Scribe Search Engine Marketing team. In his tenure he has managed many of our most prominent SEM accounts. We are proud to have another team member among the ranks of the Adwords Qualified Individuals.

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Tommy Hilfiger Chooses First Scribe for Search Engine Marketing

The North America marketing division of Tommy Hilfiger online once again gave the nod to First Scribe to provide search engine marketing services for fall brand initiatives.

The two organizations first met in 2007 when Tommy Hilfiger marketing staff located the First Scribe site in organic Google search listings. The partnership began with First Scribe marketing team managing the 2007 Christmas pay per click campaigns for the Tommy Hilfiger online store.

This year First Scribe is providing the same search engine marketing support for the launch of the Tommy Hilfiger Intimates line of lingerie.

First Scribe Director of Search Engine Marketing, Ken Kralick says, "Things are looking good for this PPC effort. Interest in the product line is good and the Hilfiger folks have a lot of inventory on hand. We're already running about half the cost per conversion we were in 2007 and I'm thrilled with that."

About Tommy Hilfiger

With a premium lifestyle brand portfolio that includes Tommy Hilfiger and Hilfiger Denim, The Tommy Hilfiger Group of Companies is one of the world's most recognized designer apparel groups. The Group's focus is designing and marketing high-quality men's wear, women's wear, children's apparel and denim collections. Through select licensees, the Group offers complementary lifestyle products such as accessories, fragrances and home furnishings. Tommy Hilfiger Group merchandise is available to consumers worldwide through an extensive network of dedicated retail stores, leading specialty and department stores and other carefully controlled distribution channels. For additional information about the Tommy Hilfiger Group of Companies, please visit www.tommy.com.

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Estimating Online Sales

Nearly every eCommerce project that we bid on comes down to one final question:

How much will we sell online?

It's impossible to guarantee any sort of a projection but we have a formula that will get us in range. Our estimates are a combination of average conversion rates times current traffic levels and a bit of intuition. This estimate isn't possible without an honest traffic number.

Estimating Online Sales

We can make a solid estimate of online sales once we have a number for Avg. Monthly Unique visitors in hand. The more months we have to work from, the better - this gives us an idea of growth/decline rate and seasonality.

Take this average number of visitors and multiply it by a conversion rate you feel comfortable with using. This will give you an estimate of the average number of people who will purchase from you because of your site. Call this number Total Buys.

Online conversion rates can easily vary from 1% to 7%. We rely heavily on Omniture SiteCatalyst for analytics and we feel comfortable with starting at 3% conversion for a new site with a solid design.

Remember That Some Products Don't Sell Online

Here's where you need to trust your intuition. There are products that simply don't sell online and these products may not be obvious. If the timeliness of the product is so immediate that next-day delivery is too late then you will have a tough time selling it online.

Average Order Size

Two more variables need to be added to the formula: Avg. Order Size and another conversion percentage based on the Avg. Order Size.

Ask your prospective client for their average order size at the brick and mortar store(s). This number is often spot-on for web orders. If you don't have this number, pull an average price of all products available from the site and adjust that number about 30% down. This adjustment will accommodate for a higher percentage of small items over the bigger-ticket units.

If this Avg. Order Size is over $500, multiply your Total Buys number by 10%. If the Avg. Order Size is less than $500, multiply Total Buys by 40%.

Multiple eCommerce studies have shown - Of the visitors who start shopping online and purchase from you, better than 60% will purchase offline. The number increases to 90% if the purchase is over $500. This number should be referred to as the Online Buys Percentage.

The Final Estimate Formula

Total Buys = (Avg. Monthly Unique * Conversion Rate)

Estimated Revenue = (Total Buys * Avg. Order Size) * Online Buys Percentage


Remember: This is an estimate!

Keep in mind, this is an estimate based upon current traffic numbers and a fairly low conversion rate. We often bracket the current traffic numbers with a 50 and 100% average traffic increase over the next year.

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Another Search Engine Gives Up

What is it about the "Winter Blues" that causes search engines to give up the race with Google?

Yahoo Gives Up

January, 2006 - Yahoo concedes 2nd place:

“We don’t think it’s reasonable to assume we’re going to gain a lot of share from Google,” Chief Financial Officer Susan Decker said in an interview. “It’s not our goal to be No. 1 in Internet search. We would be very happy to maintain our market share.” (Story)

As it turns out they lost significant market share in 2006 and 2007. Now they're fending off takeover attempts by MSN and others.

Ask.com Gives Up

March, 2008 - Ask.com Abandons Chase

We were excited to see Ask.com abandon the old "Ask Jeeves" look and feel in 2007. They shifted their aim to become a quality all-purpose search engine with relevant results. Their efforts were noticeable in the search engine rankings and we shifted efforts to their engine.

That is no longer the case. Yesterday they announced they have shifted gears. The new target is on "finding answers to basic questions about recipes, hobbies, children's homework, entertainment and health." (CNN.com Story)

We are very disappointed with this turn of events.

Disappointment

Google is a good search engine and we rely on their relevant results. Unfortunately they have a monopoly within the search industry and it has (and will) stifle innovation through competition.

Cost per click rates continue to sky-rocket as competition falls to the way-side.

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Christmas Sales Building - Will It Be Enough?

Cyber Monday proved to be the start of a high-traffic week with lackluster conversions for our clients. Thanksgiving kicked off a flurry of excited shopping but it appears American wallets are pinched and shoppers are looking for discounts.

The Official Word On The Street

Internet research company comScore Inc. reported this week that total online spending from Nov. 1 - Dec. 7 has reached more than $18 billion, up 18 percent from the same period a year ago.

"It was a terrific kick-start to December, but we expect the upcoming week to be the heaviest online spending week of the holiday season as the procrastinators and late-season deal-seekers come out in earnest," comScore Chairman Gian Fulgoni said in a written statement.

Our Numbers Are Growing

We are seeing online Click Through Rates and Sales Conversion numbers increasing as we approach Christmas. The Monday nearest Dec. 15th generally proves to be the peak of online shopping. The 18th should prove the peak of Christmas shopping in 2007.

Trim The Fat

As we stated in our last post, now is the time to trim the fat from your marketing campaigns. You should have enough data in your PPC campaigns to know what is working and what is not. Cut anything that isn't working - put the money where the buyers are.

Use your traffic data to turn any "Red" marketing efforts into the "Black".

Marketing Tip:

Think Accessories - 2007 budgets are tight so make sure you're selling pushing your accessories and add-ons.

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Writing Effective PPC Ad Copy at Christmas

Christmas season is the time for buying online but you need to be smart about your tactics. For online retail sites, traffic is often 50% higher this time of year than any other time. If you aren't careful, your traffic (and ad spend) will raise significantly but it may not lead to sales.

Branding Issues

We often run PPC ads for vanity search terms throughout the year for branding purposes. This practice will often lose effectiveness *for product manufacturers* around this time of year.

Why?

It's difficult to say exactly but I can tell you one thing - we've noticed traffic on the terms go up sharply and the sales rarely follow. ROI drops sharply.

Remember, you don't need to spend PPC money on branding *if* you are #1 on your name in organic listings.


Reconcile Your Data

Example: You may drive more traffic and eventually sell more men's product than women's by a good margin.

Are men buying the men's product? Are you sure?

Christmas time in the fashion industry tends to show women searching men's terms and buying men's product.

So, why do we care? Ad copy, ad copy, ad copy...

Women shoppers have different hot buttons versus men. You need to check the invoices against your traffic and PPC data. Then, write multiple ads around all the hot buttons and refine it every day.

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Budgeting SEO & SEM for the holidays

A prominent, international clothing company contacted us this week in search of a U.S. Internet marketing firm to guide them through SEO of a pending redesign and PPC through the holidays. I can't state the organization's name but suffice to say that an annual website budget of 7-figures is well within their reach.

We are honored to be considered for such a prestigious client and their request for proposal brings up a few good points worthy of a blog entry.

How do you budget SEO and SEM for the holidays?

• SEO - Get all of your SEO work done by September or you're behind the curve. This client will release their new website in early November, too late for Google to fully realize the site before Christmas. So, what do we suggest?
  
  Gamble a bit, ignore Google short term, and go after MSN & Yahoo. Hit the site hard at release time and "over optimize" for MSN and Yahoo. Use slightly more keywords than Google would normally like long term without going near Black Hat SEO. Yahoo is prone to fall for a little spam they will pick the site up fast.
  
  MSN will pick the site up in this short time frame and could realize full potential in time for Thanksgiving. Remember, the busiest online shopping days fall near the 15th of December so you have plenty of time to reach that market share.
  
  There is a chance that Google will boost the site into high SERP placement in the short term and then drop it after a week before gaining again long-term. Watch Google and see what they do. If Google picks the site up and holds it longer than a week, you must back out some optimization for risk of being spammy in their eyes. You never know, it may stick right off the bat.
  
  This is a short-sighted approach and you must remember to budget for a second pass to properly optimize the site after the dust clears in January. Sometimes you can push the date of a release back a bit to time the peaks for the 2nd week in December but it's tough. It's a bit like playing chicken but it's fun to watch the search engines deal with a brand-new, 2,000 page site with a 7/10 PageRank.
  


• SEM / PPC - When it comes to online shopping before the holidays you need to budget adequately for the promotional holiday periods. Three peaks should appear on your radar:
  
  1.The Monday after Thanksgiving through the following Monday - Cyber Monday (the Monday after Thanksgiving) is not the biggest online shopping day of the year as has been stated. However, Monday's are typically the heaviest traffic days of the week, and this is a big traffic day to start the season. Keep your budget high to the following Monday, which has been the biggest online shopping day of the year in previous years. This is your big week, target big-ticket items and address top Christmas gifts in your ad.
  
  2. The Monday nearest December 15th - Monday through Friday of this week is a mad rush of sales to the last-minute shoppers. Change your ads to address the looming last-minute date to safely ship. If you can, offer discounts on shipping to get these people to buy. If you can't offer discounts on shipping, consider free in-store pickup.
  
  3. The week after Christmas - The week after Christmas is when we all shop for ourselves. You will see a shift to the "Ship to:" address being the same as the "Bill to:" address. Rotate your terms and ads to target your line of accessories. Talk about your sales - make sure they feel like they can shop your site without going broke.
  
  
  Divide your expected PPC budget into these three segments and adjust your bids down so that you are still in the running at the 15th of December. If you are on a limited budget, target Mondays and Tuesdays for all it's worth.
  
  Finally, remember to turn off ads for the items that are out of stock. Keep a close watch on your PPC budget and it will pay for itself in folds.
  

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