Bing Predicts Performs as Expected in NFL Week 9; Here’s What’s In Store for Week 10
Bing Predicts is becoming a bit predictable. In last week’s post, I gave the prediction engine a 57% chance of going 9-4 or better. Lo and behold, Bing went 9-4. The search engine is now 88-46 on the season.
It’s been four weeks since I created my own formula to predict Bing’s success. The formula has accurately foretold Bing’s record in 3 of those 4 weeks (and was off by only one game the other week). Before I pat myself on the back too much, let’s discuss what happened in Week 9 and what’s ahead for Week 10.
Week 9 Recap
Bing’s successes and failures during Week 9 went mostly according to past trends. The prediction engine again struggled in games in which the predicted chances were low (3-3 for games under 60%) and when it favored the away team (3-2). For games with a predicted chance above 60%, Bing was 6-1. When favoring the home team, Bing was 6-2 this week, putting it 61-28 on the season for home field advantage.
Of the four games Bing missed this week, three of them were lopsided affairs. The margin of defeat for the teams Bing favored in these three blowouts was 70 points, including a 37-point loss by the Chargers. As I’ve discussed before, the final score doesn’t make Bing more wrong. After all, its predictions are based on chances, not on point spreads. The fact that the Chargers lost by 37 doesn’t necessarily mean they didn’t have a 53.5% chance of winning the game.
Bing’s Dolphins Dilemma
We’re not sure exactly how Bing Predicts works, but there are some signs that it likes certain teams a lot more than others. Bing’s favorite team seems to be the Seahawks; the search engine has picked Seattle (5-3) as the winner in every game this season.
While the search engine shows weekly devotion to sea birds, it does not express much love for aquatic mammals. In fact, Bing seems to hate the Dolphins (who, coincidentally, have the same 5-3 record as the Seahawks). Bing has only picked the Dolphins as the winner twice so far this season (Miami is 1-1 in these games). The Dolphins are 4-2 when Bing picks them to lose. Bing’s success rate when the Dolphins play is only 37.5%.
So what does Bing say is in store for the Dolphins in the week following their 37-0 victory over the Chargers? The search engine has them losing, of course. This might not be a fair criticism though. After all, the Dolphins are playing in Detroit against the 6-2 Lions. It’s hard to pick the Dolphins as the favorite here. Still, Miami fans everywhere should be glad to see Bing picking against their team.
Week 10 Preview
Looking at the Vegas spreads, Week 10 looks like it could be another blowout weekend. Only three games look like close-calls, but that doesn’t mean there are any guarantees. Here’s a look at Bing’s picks:
Bing is favoring the home team in 9 of 13 games. There aren’t any major surprises with these picks. As usual, Bing is going with the Vegas picks for the majority of the games.
The search engine has already made one change since its original predictions came out on Tuesday: Bing is now picking the Bucs over the Falcons. In the past, changing picks has not been kind to Bing. The search engine is only 6-8 when it switches.
Bing has also changed the predicted chances for most of the games, including the Broncos-Raiders contest. The search engine originally had the Broncos as the winner with an 86.4% chance. Bing has since lowered the percentage to 72.9, likely the result of the whooping the Patriots gave the Broncos last week.
Here’s the predicted percentage breakdown:
- 50%-59.9%: 3 games
- 60%-69.9%: 2 games
- 70-79.9%: 7 games
- 80%+: 1 game
This looks to be another solid week for the search engine. Based on past results, my formula gives the search engine a 67% chance of going 9-4 or better. My gut tells me it’s going to be better.